ABSTRACT
Background: Since 1990, the maternal mortality significantly decreased at global scale as well as the North Africa and Middle East. However, estimates for mortality and morbidity by cause and age at national scale in this region are not available. Method(s): This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. Here we report maternal mortality and morbidity by age and cause across 21 countries in the region from 1990 to 2019. Result(s): Between 1990 and 2019, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) dropped from 148.8 (129.6-171.2) to 94.3 (73.4-121.1) per 100 000 live births in North Africa and Middle East. In 1990, MMR ranged from 6.0 (5.3-6.8) in Kuwait to 502.9 (375.2-655.3) per 100 000 live births in Afghanistan. Respective figures for 2019 were 5.1 (4.0-6.4) in Kuwait to 269.9 (195.8-368.6) in Afghanistan. Percentages of deaths under 25 years was 26.0% in 1990 and 23.8% in 2019. Maternal hemorrhage, indirect maternal deaths, and other maternal disorders rank 1st to 3rd in the entire region. Ultimately, there was an evident decrease in MMR along with increase in socio-demographic index from 1990 to 2019 in all countries in the region and an evident convergence across nations. Conclusion(s): MMR has significantly declined in the region since 1990 and only five countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Morocco, and Algeria) out of 21 nations didn't achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2019. Despite the convergence in trends, there are still disparities across countries.Copyright © 2022 Academy of Medical Sciences of I.R. Iran. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Background Understanding health trends and estimating the burden of disease at the national and subnational levels helps policy makers track progress and identify disparities in overall health performance. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides comprehensive estimates for Pakistan. Comparison of health indicators since 1990 provides valuable insights about Pakistan's ability to strengthen its health-care system, reduce inequalities, improve female and child health outcomes, achieve universal health coverage, and meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We present estimates of the burden of disease, injuries, and risk factors for Pakistan provinces and territories from 1990 to 2019 based on GBD 2019 to improve health and health outcomes in the country. Methods We used methods and data inputs from GBD 2019 to estimate socio-demographic index, total fertility rate, cause-specific deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 286 causes of death and 369 causes of non-fatal health loss in Pakistan and its four provinces and three territories from 1990 to 2019. To generate estimates for Pakistan at the national and subnational levels, we used 68 location-years of data to estimate Pakistan-specific demographic indicators, 316 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific causes of death, 579 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific non-fatal outcomes, 296 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific risk factors, and 3089 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific covariates. Findings Life expectancy for both sexes in Pakistan increased nationally from 61 center dot 1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 60 center dot 0-62 center dot 1) years in 1990 to 65 center dot 9 (63 center dot 8-67 center dot 8) years in 2019;however, these gains were not uniform across the provinces and federal territories. Pakistan saw a narrowing of the difference in healthy life expectancy between the sexes from 1990 to 2019, as health gains for women occurred at faster rates than for men. For women, life expectancy increased by 8 center dot 2% (95% UI 6middot3-13middot8) between 1990 and 2019, whereas the male life expectancy increased by 7 center dot 6% (3 center dot 5-11 center dot 8). Neonatal disorders, followed by ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections were the leading causes of all-age premature mortality in 2019. Child and maternal malnutrition, air pollution, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, and tobacco consumption were the leading all-age risk factors for death and disability-adjusted life-years at the national level in 2019. Five non-communicable diseases-ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congenital defects, cirrhosis, and chronic kidney disease-were among the ten leading causes of years of life lost in Pakistan. Burden varied by socio-demographic index. Notably, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had the lowest observed gains in life expectancy. Dietary iron deficiency was the leading cause of years lived with disability for both men and women in 1990 and 2019. Low birthweight and short gestation and particulate matter pollution were the leading contributors to overall disease burden in both 1990 and 2019 despite moderate improvements, with a 23 center dot 5% (95% UI 3 center dot 8-39 center dot 2) and 27 center dot 6% (14 center dot 3-38 center dot 6) reduction in age-standardised attributable DALY rates during the study period. Interpretation Our study shows that progress has been made on reducing Pakistan's disease burden since 1990, but geographical, age, and sex disparities persist. Equitable investment in the health system, as well as the prioritisation of high-impact policy interventions and programmes, are needed to save lives and improve health outcomes. Pakistan is facing several domestic and foreign challenges-the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, political turmoil, catastrophic flooding, the COVID-19 pandemic-that will shape the trajectory of the country's health and development. Pakistan must address the burden of infectious disease and curb rising rates of non-communicable diseases. Prioritising these three areas will enhance Pakistan's ability to achieve universal health coverage, meet its Sustainable Development Goals, and improve the overall health outcomes.
ABSTRACT
Background Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), demand satisfied, and the method of contraception used for both partnered and unpartnered women for 5-year age groups in 204 countries and territories between 1970 and 2019. Methods We used 1162 population-based surveys capturing contraceptive use among women between 1970 and 2019, in which women of reproductive age (15-49 years) self-reported their, or their partner's, current use of contraception for family planning purposes. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of the CPR, mCPR, demand satisfied, and method mix by age and marital status. We assessed how age-specific mCPR and demand satisfied changed with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of social and economic development, using the meta-regression Bayesian, regularised, trimmed method from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. Findings In 2019, 162middot9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155middot6-170middot2) women had unmet need for contraception, of whom 29middot3% (27middot9-30middot6) resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 27middot2% (24middot4-30middot3) resided in south Asia. Women aged 15-19 years (64middot8% [62middot9-66middot7]) and 20-24 years (71middot9% [68middot9-74middot2]) had the lowest rates of demand satisfied, with 43middot2 million (95% UI 39middot3-48middot0) women aged 15-24 years with unmet need in 2019. The mCPR and demand satisfied among women aged 15-19 years were substantially lower than among women aged 20-49 years at SDI values below 60 (on a 0-100 scale), but began to equalise as SDI increased above 60.Between 1970 and 2019, the global mCPR increased by 20middot1 percentage points (95% UI 18middot7-21middot6). During this time, traditional methods declined as a proportion of all contraceptive methods, whereas the use of implants, injections, female sterilisation, and condoms increased. Method mix differs substantially depending on age and geography, with the share of female sterilisation increasing with age and comprising more than 50% of methods in use in south Asia. In 28 countries, one method was used by more than 50% of users in 2019 Interpretation The dominance of one contraceptive method in some locations raises the question of whether family planning policies should aim to expand method mix or invest in making existing methods more accessible. Lower rates of demand satisfied among women aged 15-24 years are also concerning because unintended pregnancies before age 25 years can forestall or eliminate education and employment opportunities that lead to social and economic empowerment. Policy makers should strive to tailor family planning programmes to the preferences of the groups with the most need, while maintaining the programmes used by existing users. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.